New Zealand votes with Luxon and Hipkins level in the final polls

New Zealanders are voting in a general election that the final opinion polls left too close to call. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National Party is seeking a second term, and Labour, led by former prime minister Chris Hipkins, wants to return to power.

Voting places opened at 9 am on Saturday and stay open until 7 pm local time, which is 11:30 am IST. More than 2,300 places are open across the country. Enrolment closed on October 25, so nobody can register at the door.

A tight race

The final Verian poll, taken between October 29 and November 2, put National on 30% and Labour on 29%. The Greens were on 16%, ACT on 10% and NZ First on 8%. The Opportunity Party, led by Qiulae Wong, stood at 6%, just above the 5% threshold a party needs to enter Parliament without winning an electorate seat.

The poll projected the right-wing bloc of National, ACT and NZ First at 58 seats, down from 61 a week earlier, and Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori at 56 or 60 depending on how the Māori seats fall. On those numbers Opportunity could hold the balance. Luxon led Hipkins as preferred prime minister, 23% to 19%.

Hipkins said he was “feeling increasingly optimistic, but there’s still a lot of work to do. It’s going to be a close election.” Luxon said “the only poll that matters” is the vote on Saturday.

Heavy early voting

More than 1.5 million people had voted before election day. In the first seven days of advance voting, 913,762 votes were cast, against 712,192 at the same point in 2023, and about 24% of enrolled voters had already voted by then. Cost of living, jobs, economic growth and public services have dominated the campaign.

When results come

Preliminary results are released progressively from 7 pm, and the Electoral Commission aims to publish about half of the voting places by 10 pm and about 95% of the preliminary party vote by 11:30 pm, which is about 4 pm IST on Saturday. Special votes, which include votes cast outside the voter’s own electorate and from overseas, are not in that count and are tallied for up to 10 days. In 2023 they moved a handful of seats.

Election-day rules ban campaign material, demonstrations and any urging of people to vote one way, including online. The official result will be declared on November 27.

Coalition talks could be slow. They took about four weeks in 2020 and around 40 days in 2023, and a close result, a party near the threshold or an overhang seat could push them past the special votes.