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Factory PMI for October due today after flash reading showed growth easing to 54.9
The final HSBC manufacturing survey comes out on Monday. Early figures pointed to slightly slower factory growth and weak hiring, but the fastest rise in export orders in more than a year and the softest price increases in almost four years.
Key points
- The flash October manufacturing PMI was 54.9, down from 55.1 in September.
- New export orders grew at the fastest pace since June 2025, says HSBC's Pranjul Bhandari.
- Factory selling prices rose at the softest pace in almost four years.
India’s final purchasing managers’ index for factories in October is due later on Monday morning, the final word on how the country’s manufacturers fared in a month of costly oil and war in West Asia.
The flash estimate, released on 23 October, put the HSBC India Manufacturing PMI at 54.9, a shade below September’s 55.1. Any reading above 50 means activity grew from the month before. The output index edged up to 57.6 from 57.5.
Flash numbers can move. September’s figure was first put at 55.7 and later revised down to 55.1 in the final survey, so Monday’s number could differ from the early estimate.
The flash survey had good news on exports. “The steady pace of new order growth masks the fastest increase in new export orders since June 2025,” said Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC. Firms reported demand from the US, the UK, West Asia and Bangladesh.
Hiring was the weak spot. Factory job creation slowed, and across the private sector employment grew at its weakest pace of the year, with companies saying their staff were enough to handle current work. Services firms kept headcount unchanged, ending a nine-month run of hiring.
Prices have cooled. Input cost inflation eased for a seventh straight month to its lowest in almost a year, even as firms mentioned dearer steel and transport. Factory selling prices rose at their softest pace in almost four years, a welcome sign for the Reserve Bank.
The flash composite index, which combines factories and services, rose to 56.7 from 55.9, its fastest growth since June. The final services PMI is due on Wednesday, 4 November.