Bay of Bengal low may become Cyclone Akvan on November 16, Odisha holds emergency meeting

A low-pressure area over the Andaman Sea is expected to grow into a cyclonic storm over the central Bay of Bengal by the evening of November 16, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has told the Odisha government, and the state moved on Friday to put its districts on alert. If the system reaches cyclone strength it will be named Akvan.

The IMD has not yet said where the storm would go or whether it will touch the coast. Odisha’s Disaster Management Minister Suresh Pujari said the state was not waiting for that answer. “Though the IMD has not made any prediction, we have already taken precautionary measures,” he said on Friday.

What the IMD has said

The low formed over the southeast Bay of Bengal on Friday morning, November 13, under an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the central Andaman Sea and the adjoining Andaman and Nicobar Islands. In a special message to the Odisha chief secretary, the IMD laid out the expected path stage by stage:

• November 14: a well-marked low-pressure area, moving north-westwards.
• Morning of November 15: a depression.
• Evening of November 16: a cyclonic storm over the central Bay, moving north-north-westwards.

The forecast stages

1. November 13Low-pressure area forms over the southeast Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea
2. November 14Expected to become a well-marked low-pressure area
3. November 15, morningExpected to become a depression
4. November 16, eveningExpected to become a cyclonic storm and be named Akvan

The forecast is for the open sea so far. The IMD has indicated no likely landfall area and no effect on any coast, and says it will keep watching the system as it develops.

Warnings for Odisha

The Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre’s midday bulletin already carries warnings for the days after the forecast storm forms. On November 17, squally weather with winds of 45 to 55 km/h, gusting to 65 km/h, is likely along and off the south Odisha coast. The sea will be rough to very rough, and fishermen have been advised not to go out there.

A yellow alert for heavy rain covers Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpur on November 18 and 19. On November 19 and 20, the yellow alert moves to Rayagada, Gajapati, Ganjam and Puri. Thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds of 30 to 40 km/h are forecast across a wide belt, including Balasore, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Cuttack, Khordha and Nayagarh. These are warnings for rain and wind from the system’s approach, not a forecast of where a cyclone will cross.

The state’s response

The state government alerted district collectors in the coastal and southern districts after the IMD message arrived. Pujari, who also holds the revenue portfolio, chaired a high-level preparatory meeting at Rajiv Bhawan in Bhubaneswar on Friday evening, with collectors joining by video conference. No decisions were announced. He said the government would hold further talks with the district administrations as the forecast firms up, and would take specific steps once the IMD clarifies the storm’s trajectory.

Ganjam’s weekend leave order

Ganjam, in the south of the state, has cancelled leave for all government staff on Saturday, November 14, and Sunday, November 15. Officers and staff of district offices, sub-divisional offices, block offices and other establishments must attend as usual and stay on duty for emergency work. The collector warned that non-compliance will be viewed seriously and could bring disciplinary action.

The order, as reported, gives a different reason from the new storm. It cites the continuing restoration and rehabilitation work after Cyclone Arnab, whose rain lashed south Odisha on October 28. The district was among the hardest hit, as our earlier report records. A landslide at Ghidipabali village killed seven people, and Odisha asked the Centre for ₹2,526 crore in assistance for damage from Arnab and the floods that followed in Ganjam, Gajapati and Kandhamal.

How we got here

This is the second Bay of Bengal system to threaten the state in under a month. Odisha cancelled collectors’ leave and shut schools in five districts before Arnab, and the state had put all 30 districts on alert as that storm approached. Arnab’s rain left Ganjam’s Rushikulya river embankments breached and roads and bridges washed away, and Odisha counted 11 lives lost to the cyclone, the floods and the landslide. Districts that are still repairing that damage are the ones named in the new rain warnings.

On Friday, Chief Secretary Anu Garg was already reviewing development work with collectors at Lok Seva Bhawan, where Home Additional Chief Secretary Hemant Sharma asked them to identify government land at once for regional disaster-response hubs in Balasore, Cuttack, Brahmapur, Rayagada and Sambalpur, to speed up the deployment of equipment in a disaster.

What to watch next

The next marker is the IMD’s update on November 14, when the low is due to become a well-marked low-pressure area. The IMD has said it will keep monitoring the system as it develops. Fishermen off the south Odisha coast have already been advised not to go to sea on November 17.