Trump expects to meet Xi and Putin in Shenzhen next week; China says it is in contact

President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he thinks he will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen next week, and that the Iran war and denuclearisation would be on the table. On Monday, November 9, China’s foreign ministry said it is maintaining communication with the relevant parties, but it did not confirm that a meeting of the three leaders will take place.

What was said

Trump spoke to reporters before flying back to Washington from Florida. “One of the meetings, I think, will be with President Putin and President Xi, and that’ll be interesting,” he said. On the agenda he added: “We’re talking a lot of things, including denuclearization, but we’ll be talking a lot of things.” On Iran, he said: “We’re trying to end the war in Iran.” He said he will travel to China for the summit, which is scheduled for November 18 and 19.

Foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun, asked about the remarks at Monday’s briefing, said Beijing is in contact with the relevant parties about a meeting of the heads of state of China, Russia and the United States. He gave no date, venue or format.

How the idea took shape

The three-way meeting has been discussed for weeks. In October Trump said he was open to three-way arms control talks with Xi and Putin focused on denuclearisation. Around the same time Putin was reported to have proposed a trilateral summit on ending the war in Ukraine. On October 18 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the US had proposed a three-way summit with Putin, possibly in December.

On November 3 Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there was “a certain exchange of signals confirming readiness to hold such a meeting” and “an exchange of views through diplomatic channels on what could be on the agenda”. He said China, as host, has the leading role in preparing it, and that Moscow hoped it would be finalised “in the coming days”. Beijing’s line then was narrower: it said it was “in communication with relevant parties regarding the meeting between the Chinese and Russian heads of state”, with no mention of Trump.

Road to Shenzhen

1. October 18Zelenskyy says the US has proposed a three-way summit with Putin
2. November 3Peskov says signals of readiness are being exchanged; China is host
3. November 8Trump says he thinks he will meet Putin and Xi in China
4. November 9China says it is in communication with relevant parties
5. November 10 to 11US, Russia and Ukraine talks reported in Abu Dhabi
6. November 18 to 19APEC leaders' summit, Shenzhen

The wars behind the agenda

Trump has also said a Ukraine deal is close. In remarks at the White House on November 5 he spoke of a “big, beautiful agreement” after meeting Putin’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev, and in a television interview he said the war “is going to end and it’s going to end soon”. Trilateral talks among the US, Ukraine and Russia are reported to be set for Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11, with European participation.

On Iran, talks are stuck. Tehran passed Washington a nuclear proposal through Qatar but only after seven demands, including sanctions relief and reparations, are met. Two tankers were reported on fire near the Strait of Hormuz on November 8.

What it means for India

India is not an APEC member and will not be at the table, but the topics are ones that move its bills. India spent $90.6 billion on crude imports in April to September, 46.3% more than a year earlier on almost unchanged volumes, as the Indian basket averaged $116.09 a barrel in September, according to the oil ministry’s PPAC data. A deal that ends the Iran war and reopens Gulf shipping lanes would bear directly on that figure.

Russia is the other thread. India bought about 2.08 million barrels a day of Russian crude in August, roughly 45% of its imports, according to Kpler. A US law signed on September 18 allows tariffs of up to 100% on the top buyers of Russian oil, and President Trump waived it on October 16 for now. Any Ukraine settlement discussed in Shenzhen could decide whether that waiver stays. No Indian government reaction to Trump’s remarks had been issued by Monday afternoon.

What happens next

Nothing is confirmed. China has yet to say whether it will host a three-way meeting, and the Kremlin has not commented on Trump’s latest remarks. The signal to watch is a formal announcement from Beijing, or from the White House or the Kremlin, before the summit opens on November 18. The Abu Dhabi talks on November 10 and 11 will show how far the Ukraine track has moved before the leaders arrive.