India can win the ODI series in Hamilton, but rain and a hurried pitch loom

India need one more win to take the one-day series in New Zealand, and the weather may decide whether they get it on Tuesday. The third ODI at Seddon Park, Hamilton, is due to start at 3 pm local time, 7:30 am IST on November 10, with India leading the five-match series 2-0 after a four-run Duckworth-Lewis-Stern win in Wellington on November 7.

A third win would settle the series with two matches to spare. Forecasts for Hamilton are poor: one hourly forecast gives an 86% chance of rain at the scheduled start, and the chance stays above 75% through most of the afternoon before easing in the evening.

A pitch that has had little time

The Hamilton pitch has been under covers for long spells and the ground staff were reported to have had only about half a day to prepare it before rain set in. That points to a surface that sweats under the covers and helps seam bowlers early, which makes the toss unusually valuable. Sides chasing have won 32 of the 61 ODIs played at Seddon Park, against 25 for those batting first.

India’s batting coach Sitanshu Kotak was quoted as saying the wickets in this part of the tour carry 12 to 14 mm of grass, which makes a match of around 140 runs a side more likely than one of 300. The second ODI fitted that description: New Zealand were bowled out for 134 and India were 113 for 7 when rain ended the match.

How the series got here

India took the first ODI at Eden Park by five wickets on DLS, in our report of that match. In Wellington, Gurnoor Brar’s career-best 4 for 30 bowled the hosts out and India edged home by four runs, as we reported in the second ODI story. Both results were settled by rain rules, and a third wet match will test how the sides cope again.

New Zealand have a history to defend. They have not lost a bilateral ODI series at home since India won 4-1 in 2019, a run of 11 series. India have won only two of the 10 bilateral ODI series they have played in New Zealand, 3-1 in 2009 and 4-1 in 2019.

Team news

New Zealand’s bowling stock is thin. Blair Tickner has a concussion after being hit on the back of the head while batting, and fast bowler Kristian Clarke has been called in as cover. Matt Henry, who collided with Devon Conway before the series, has not been cleared from concussion and is aiming for the fourth ODI. Lockie Ferguson is reported to be out of the fourth and fifth ODIs with a calf tear. Mitchell Santner has lost six of seven tosses on the tour.

For India, previews expect the winning combination to stay largely unchanged, with Rohit Sharma, Gill, Virat Kohli, KL Rahul and Shreyas Iyer in the batting order and Brar and Arshdeep Singh in the attack. The final eleven will be known only at the toss.

This is also Gill’s last ODI of the tour. He is due to leave the limited-overs squad after Hamilton to prepare for the Test series, and Rahul is expected to go with him. Iyer is likely to take over the captaincy for the last two ODIs.

Third ODI, Hamilton

• 7:30 am ISTscheduled start, Tuesday, November 10
• 2-0India's lead in the five-match series
• 32 of 61ODIs at Seddon Park won by the side chasing
• 11home ODI series New Zealand have gone unbeaten

What happens next

If play is possible on Tuesday, a win for India ends the series. The fourth ODI follows at Mount Maunganui on November 13 and the fifth on November 15. The first Test starts at Wellington on November 19, at 3:30 am IST, after India A finish their match at Lincoln, which we covered in our latest report.