Likely Cyclone Akvan's track still open: Andhra rain possible on November 19, Odisha on alert

A low-pressure area that formed over the Bay of Bengal on Friday is due to take its next step on Saturday, November 14, when the India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects it to become a well-marked low-pressure area. The IMD’s forecast, issued on Friday, then has it becoming a depression on Sunday morning and a cyclonic storm by Monday evening, at which point it would be named Akvan. What nobody has yet said is where it will go. Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Bangladesh all sit inside the range of tracks being discussed, and forecasters say the picture should sharpen once the system becomes a depression.

What the IMD forecast says

The low formed at 5:30 am on November 13 over the southeast Bay of Bengal, under an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the central Andaman Sea and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. It was still over the same region at 8:30 am. The IMD expects it to move north-westwards on Saturday, and then north-north-westwards as a cyclonic storm on Monday.

The IMD's expected stages

1. November 13Low forms over the southeast Bay of Bengal
2. November 14Well-marked low-pressure area, moving north-westwards
3. November 15, morningDepression
4. November 16, eveningCyclonic storm over the central Bay, to be named Akvan

The IMD’s wind warnings for the sea are already in force. Squally weather with winds of up to about 50 km/h, gusting to 60 km/h, is forecast over the Andaman Sea on November 13 and 14 and over the southeast Bay from November 13 to 16. From November 15 to 17, winds of 45 to 55 km/h, gusting to 65 km/h, are expected over the southwest Bay, and the same over the central Bay on November 16 and 17. Akvan is a name contributed by Iran; if the system is named, it will be the year’s third cyclone, after Murasu and Arnab.

Where it may go

The IMD has given no landfall point. Some weather models point to the north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts, according to reports of the forecast. Forecasters in Andhra say that if the system keeps to its expected path, heavy rain could reach parts of the state on November 19. The IMD had not, as of Friday night, informed the Andhra Pradesh government of any likely impact on the state.

There is a second possibility. If the system recurves to the north-east it could move towards the Bangladesh coast. Skymet, the private forecaster, had earlier said a third cyclone would form around November 18 rather than November 16, and that, unlike the previous two storms, it was more likely to curve away from the Tamil Nadu and Andhra coasts. It put West Bengal and Bangladesh at higher risk of a strike. A senior IMD official told reporters it was “too early to predict formation of a cyclone”.

Odisha’s preparations

In Bhubaneswar, the Regional Meteorological Centre’s director, Manorama Mohanty, said it was “too early to predict the exact direction of the developing system”, and that a clearer picture would come once it became a depression. Fishermen have been strictly advised not to go to sea during this period.

The Special Relief Commissioner has alerted all district collectors, departmental secretaries, Revenue Divisional Commissioners and the executive director of the Odisha State Disaster Management Authority, and told them to stay ready for emergencies. Disaster Management Minister Suresh Pujari chaired a high-level meeting on Friday evening, with IMD disaster-management officials attending. He said the IMD had given no specific prediction for Odisha but that precautions were already in place, as our earlier report records.

For the land, the Bhubaneswar centre expects most of Odisha to stay mostly dry from November 13 to 17. Coastal districts, Mayurbhanj and Keonjhar may see light to moderate rain with lightning and gusts of 30 to 40 km/h. Conditions may worsen on November 17 along the south Odisha coast, where winds of 45 to 55 km/h, gusting to 65 km/h, are forecast. A yellow alert for heavy rain covers Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpur, and Puri, Ganjam, Gajapati and Rayagada are named for heavy rain later in the week. Minimum temperatures are expected to stay about the same for five days and rise by 1 to 2 degrees Celsius from November 18.

What the state has learnt from two storms

Both states have just been through a hard month. Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi reviewed Cyclone Arnab on October 24, and said the state’s objective remained “Zero casualties”, as we reported then. Arnab’s rain nonetheless triggered a landslide at Ghidipabali in Ganjam that killed seven people, and Odisha asked the Centre for ₹2,526 crore for the damage, as our earlier report shows. Andhra Pradesh’s government under Chandrababu Naidu reviewed both Murasu and Arnab, with fishermen’s safety at the centre of its Arnab review.

Ganjam is among the districts still doing restoration work after Arnab, and it is also named in the new heavy-rain warnings for later in the week, even though the storm’s path is not known.

Why it matters

For fishing families, the effect starts now. The IMD’s squall warnings cover the southeast, southwest and central Bay through November 17, and the advice to stay ashore applies to Odisha’s boats from the first day. For coastal districts, the practical issue is lead time. The Regional Meteorological Centre says direction will be clearer once the system becomes a depression, so the next two days decide how much notice coastal districts get.

What to watch next

The first marker is the IMD’s update on Saturday, November 14, when the low is due to become well marked. The second is the depression on Sunday morning, November 15, after which Odisha’s Regional Meteorological Centre expects a clearer view of direction. The third is the forecast cyclonic storm on the evening of November 16. Pujari has said a clearer assessment of trajectory and landfall area may come by Saturday; until then, the state says it is acting on precaution rather than a forecast.