Key points
- President Donald Trump said in a telephone interview on November 8 that renewed US action depends on whether Iran signs a strong deal, and is "highly unlikely it's going to be necessary".
- In the same breath he said the US has picked out 38 bridges it could knock down in one hour if strikes resume.
- Brent fell to about $97.5 a barrel on Monday, after a 17% drop last week, which eases the pressure on India's import bill.
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday, November 8, that renewed military action against Iran is “highly unlikely” to be needed, as long as Tehran signs a deal, but he paired the remark with a threat to destroy 38 Iranian bridges “in literally one hour” if the fighting resumes. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell to about $97.5 a barrel in Asian trading on Monday.
Trump made the remarks in a telephone interview with a US broadcaster. Asked whether the United States would strike again, he said: “It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement.” He added that it was “highly unlikely it’s going to be necessary.” He also argued that Iran’s economic troubles, including high inflation, will push it towards an agreement on American terms.
What he said, and what he held back
The softer line came with a hard edge. Trump said the US had identified 38 bridges “that we can knock down in literally one hour” if strikes resume. The remark tells Tehran that the US is not taking the military option off the table, only parking it behind a signed text.
On Truth Social he said Task Force Iron Gate is “in full force and effect”. The US Central Command unit was set up on November 7 to choke off Iran’s movement of advanced weapons and sanctioned material over its land borders and through the Caspian Sea, extending the naval blockade of Iranian ports. The Revolutionary Guards dismissed it as a plan that will “remain only on paper”.
Trump also acknowledged that the unpopular war contributed to his Republican Party’s heavy losses in last week’s midterm elections. Vice President JD Vance was blunter: “The reason we lost is the war.”
Talks that are not moving
The conciliatory words sit awkwardly beside the diplomatic picture. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the same day that Iran’s demands are “outrageous and ridiculous” and that he would not call a breakthrough close. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said mediators have stopped travelling since the US election results and that talks are on hold while Tehran assesses them.
Iran’s position has not changed. It says it passed a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar but will discuss it only after the US meets seven demands, which include lifting sanctions, releasing frozen assets and paying war reparations. Washington wants nuclear questions in any first round.
The sea and the sky
The weekend gave little sign of calm. Both sides reported ships hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said two tankers hit mines and a third caught fire, while the US said it disabled a commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman. Neither claim could be independently confirmed. A Saudi Aramco administrative building in Riyadh was reportedly damaged by falling debris after an attempted attack, with no injuries.
Only days earlier, US forces had carried out what Trump called “minor strikes” on Qeshm island. Trump’s latest phrasing is a conditional, not a pledge.
From strikes to a conditional pause
- November 3, 2026US forces strike Qeshm island; midterm elections held.
- November 5, 2026Iran says it sent a nuclear proposal via Qatar, tied to seven demands.
- November 7, 2026CENTCOM launches Task Force Iron Gate; the US disables a vessel in the Gulf of Oman.
- November 8, 2026Rubio calls Iran's demands unrealistic; Trump says new strikes are highly unlikely if a deal is signed.
- November 9, 2026Brent falls to about $97.5; Rubio in Paris for G7 foreign ministers.
What it means for oil and India
Oil traders took Trump’s words as a sign that the worst case is receding. Brent was down 84 cents, or 0.85%, at $97.48 a barrel at 0138 GMT on Monday, and US crude fell 32 cents to $90.51. By 11:34 GMT Brent was at $97.67, down 64 cents, after briefly dropping more than $1. It lost 17% last week, its steepest weekly fall since the pandemic began.
Tim Waterer of KCM Trade called Trump’s tone “more measured” but said the market is waiting to see whether the change lasts. JPMorgan expects an oil glut, with output exceeding demand by 1.1 million barrels a day in September and 1.4 million in October. Analysts said real progress in talks could ease prices further, while a breakdown or fresh shipping disruption could send them up. Pump prices usually lag wholesale moves.
For India, which buys about half its crude through Hormuz, the fall matters because the import bill rose 46% in the first half of this fiscal year, almost all of it on price. State oil companies were losing about ₹12 a litre on diesel and ₹9 on petrol in October. Every sustained dollar off crude helps their books and the rupee. Retail prices are capped, so a drop does not reach the pump quickly.
Iraq separately said it has reached an understanding with Washington to export oil through Hormuz by a shipping lane near Oman. Its foreign minister said the war has cost Iraq $60 billion.
What happens next
Rubio is at the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in Paris on Monday and Tuesday. Araghchi has given no date for mediators to resume travel, and Qatar says its mediation continues. Indian markets are shut on Tuesday, November 10, for Diwali Balipratipada, so the oil move will reach Dalal Street only on Wednesday.