ExplainedUS politics
Can a new US Congress undo Trump's tariffs? What the midterms mean for India's trade
Votes are still being counted, and Democrats are hoping to win the House. The Constitution gives Congress the power over tariffs, but Donald Trump has found ways to tax imports without it. What a change in Washington could and could not do for Indian exporters.
The short answer
The US Constitution gives Congress the power to tax, and in February 2026 the Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump's emergency tariffs for that reason. But the 10% duty Indian goods now face rests on a different law, Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which lets the President act without a fresh vote. A Democratic House, if the count delivers one, could hold hearings, issue subpoenas, force votes and resist any trade deal that needs legislation, but it could not cut tariffs on its own over a presidential veto. For India the bigger effect is on the politics of the trade talks, which New Delhi slowed down while it waited for the result.
Who decides tariffs in the United States?
On paper, Congress does. The US Constitution gives the power to tax, including taxes on imports, to the legislature. Over the decades Congress has handed parts of that power to the President through a series of trade laws, each with its own conditions and limits.
That split is why Tuesday’s midterm elections matter for trade. Republicans went into the vote holding the Senate 53 to 47 and the House 218 to 214. A party needs 218 seats for a House majority. Counting is still going on across the country, and the newly elected Congress takes office in January 2027.
What did the Supreme Court do to Trump’s tariffs?
It struck down the biggest of them on 20 February 2026. In a 6-3 ruling, the court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a 1977 law used mostly for sanctions, does not let the President impose tariffs. Trump had used that law for his worldwide “reciprocal” duties, including the ones on India.
The ruling did not end tariffs. Within a day Trump announced a temporary global duty under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which applied to Indian goods at 10% from 24 February. That law allows such a duty for only 150 days unless Congress extends it, and Congress did not. It expired on 24 July.
So what tariff do Indian goods face now?
A 10% duty under Section 301 of the same 1974 law, in force since 24 July. The US Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, announced the result of an investigation into whether 60 economies were doing enough to keep out goods made with forced labour. India was first proposed for 12.5%. It was given 10% after it amended its Foreign Trade Policy on 14 June to ban such imports.
Seventeen economies, including India, the UK, Canada, Bangladesh and Pakistan, got the 10% rate; the other 43, including China and Vietnam, got 12.5%. Goods already under Section 232 duties, such as steel and aluminium at 50%, are outside it. Unlike the stopgap, a Section 301 duty has no 150-day clock and can stay for years.
US tariffs on Indian goods since 2025
- 27 August 2025Tariffs on Indian goods doubled to 50%: a 25% reciprocal duty plus a 25% penalty over Russian oil.
- February 2026A trade framework promises an 18% rate and drops the Russia penalty. The 18% never takes effect.
- 20 February 2026The US Supreme Court strikes down the emergency-law tariffs, 6-3.
- 24 February 2026A temporary 10% global duty under Section 122 applies to India, for 150 days.
- 24 July 2026A 10% Section 301 forced-labour duty replaces it, with no fixed end date.
What could a Democratic House do about it?
Hold hearings, demand documents and force votes, but not cut tariffs alone. A House majority brings committee chairs and subpoena power, and Democrats have prepared what has been described as a vast oversight agenda covering the administration. They could summon officials to answer for what tariffs have done to consumer prices and put the administration’s trade measures on the record.
What they cannot easily do is change the law. Any bill to curb tariffs would need the Senate too, and then the President’s signature. Overriding a veto takes two-thirds of both chambers. Max Yoeli, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, has written that opposition on foreign policy “will be more about optics than hard constraints”. The brokerage Jefferies expects the average effective US tariff to stay between 10% and 20% even under a divided government.
Where would Congress have real leverage?
On anything that needs a vote. A trade agreement with India that requires legislation would face a more sceptical House. Budget bills start in the House, so Democrats could attach conditions through spending riders. They could also press the administration on the Russia sanctions law Trump signed on 18 September, which allows tariffs of up to 100% on the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas, a group that includes India. Trump waived those penalties in an order dated 16 October, but he can lift the waiver at any time.
The same goes for the $100,000 fee on new H-1B visa petitions, which falls heavily on Indian professionals. A federal judge in California blocked it on 30 September and the administration has appealed. A Democratic House could add hearings and riders to that fight, though the courts will decide it first.
How has India played the wait?
By slowing the trade talks until the result. Officials were reported in April to want clarity on the shape of Congress before making tariff commitments. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said on 29 July that the first part of the deal was finalised but would come into operation “as soon as the United States is able to ensure that India gets a comparative advantage over its competitors”. On 5 October Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the talks had reached a plateau where more concessions would be “very, very difficult” for both sides.
What should Indian exporters watch next?
The final count, then the new Congress’s first moves. Indian goods exports to the US rose to $42.79 billion between April and August 2026, from $40.39 billion a year earlier, despite the duties. The 10% rate, and India’s edge over competitors facing 12.5%, will stay unless the administration changes it.
A Democratic House would not change that number overnight. It would change the mood in Washington: more questions about what tariffs cost American buyers, a harder path for any deal that needs a vote, and two years in which Trump’s trade agenda runs mostly on executive power. History favours that outcome; the President’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 post-war midterms.