World's fossil CO2 emissions set to dip 0.4% in 2026, but India's will rise 4.4%

The world’s fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are on course to fall 0.4% in 2026 to 38.2 billion tonnes, but India’s are projected to rise 4.4%, according to the Global Carbon Budget 2026, published on Tuesday by an international team of more than 140 scientists led from the University of Exeter. India’s rise is faster than its average of 3.5% a year over the last decade.

The global dip is not the good news it appears. Total CO2 emissions, which add land-use change such as deforestation and peat fires, are projected to rise to 43.3 billion tonnes from 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025. Atmospheric CO2 is expected to reach 427.7 parts per million this year, 54% above pre-industrial levels.

What the budget says

The 21st annual assessment, released as a preprint in the journal Earth System Science Data on November 10, breaks the 2026 projection down by fuel and by country.

By fuel, oil emissions fall 1.9% and gas 0.3%, while coal rises 0.6%. The authors link the oil drop largely to a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict, rather than to lasting change.

By country, China, which produces 32% of the world’s fossil emissions, is down 0.9%, with a sharp fall in oil and a 0.3% rise in coal. The United States is down 1.3%, mainly because coal emissions eased after last year’s spike. The European Union is down 1.5% and Japan 1%. The rest of the world is down 0.7%, mostly from oil. International aviation and shipping are each down 1%.

India+4.4%

World−0.4%

China−0.9%

Japan−1.0%

United States−1.3%

European Union−1.5%

−2%0%+5%

Projected change in fossil CO2 emissions, 2026

Item	Value
India	+4.4%
World	−0.4%
China	−0.9%
Japan	−1.0%
United States	−1.3%
European Union	−1.5%

The release gives no India-specific breakdown of fuels or causes. It does say India’s emissions are growing faster than the 3.5% yearly average of the last ten years, and India is the only major emitter in its list with a rise.

The 1.5°C budget is nearly spent

The remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C is about 150 billion tonnes of CO2, less than four years of emissions at the current rate.

Land-use emissions of 5.1 billion tonnes are rising this year, driven by peat fires and forest degradation in Southeast Asia linked to El Niño drought. Permanent deforestation emits about 3.8 billion tonnes a year (2016 to 2025), and reforestation and afforestation offset around half of that. Novel carbon dioxide removal offsets less than 30 minutes of annual fossil emissions. The land sink recovered after weakening in the 2023-24 El Niño, but the authors expect the 2026 El Niño to have a significant effect next year.

Reactions

Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter, who led the study, said: “a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution.” He added that the long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies.

Glen Peters of the CICERO Center for International Climate Research said: “A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak unless it is driven by structural change.”

A companion paper in Nature Climate Change, led by Corinne Le Quéré of the University of East Anglia, finds that solar, wind and electric vehicles could offset 64% to 79% of emissions from new energy demand through 2028. Solar and wind avoided 4.1 billion tonnes of emissions in 2025 and are projected to avoid 4.6 billion tonnes in 2026. About 10% of the world’s car fleet was electrified in 2025, or 6% excluding hybrids. And 59 countries emitted less in 2025 than in 2019 while their economies grew. “Clean technologies are making a real difference in reducing global emissions,” Le Quéré said.

Julia Pongratz of LMU Munich stressed that carbon removal must be scaled up alongside emissions cuts.

How we got here

The numbers came out on the second day of COP31 in Antalya, Turkey, which began on November 9 (our report). On November 9, the World Meteorological Organization said January to September 2026 was about 1.47°C above the 1850-1900 average, and that El Niño is expected to be the strongest on record by December. On November 4, WHO said six climate and health measures could prevent 1.6 million deaths a year (our report).

Why it matters

For India, the finding lands as negotiators argue over who should cut faster and who should pay. A 4.4% rise in a year when most large emitters fell gives other delegations a figure to cite, while India’s earlier position at the talks has centred on public, concessional climate finance. The study itself does not assign blame; it describes where emissions moved.

For everyone, the budget arithmetic is plain. At about 43 billion tonnes of total CO2 a year, 150 billion tonnes is under four years. The authors say the 2026 dip is the product of an oil shock and clean-energy growth together, and that the second must continue to work after the first fades.

What next

A peer-reviewed version of the Global Carbon Budget will follow the preprint. COP31 continues in Antalya, and the WMO’s full State of the Global Climate 2026 report is due in March 2027.