Key points
- US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Paris on November 10 that the economic campaign is so damaging that there is no need for major combat operations against Iran right now.
- It came a day after President Donald Trump said Iran is "militarily effectively over", while Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei called talk of negotiations imaginary.
- Iran says the US must first accept seven conditions, including an end to sanctions and the blockade and the release of frozen assets.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Paris on Tuesday, November 10, that the American economic campaign against Iran is “so devastating that right now there is no need for major combat operations”. Speaking after two days of G7 foreign ministers’ talks, he said President Donald Trump had concluded that his aims can be reached by sanctions and the naval blockade of Iranian ports. In New York trading on Tuesday morning, Brent crude was down about 2% at $90.64 a barrel, its lowest in two months.
The remarks followed a surprise White House briefing on Monday, November 9, in which Trump said the war with Iran is “effectively over” militarily. Iran rejected both messages and says no negotiations are under way.
What Rubio said
Rubio rejected the idea that holding back from large strikes amounts to a stalemate. “The economic pain that is being inflicted on Iran right now is extraordinary, and it compounds,” he said. He added that Iran has never before faced the inability to sell its oil and gas on world markets to the degree it does now. The US military, he said, “stands ready” if Iran crosses red lines, and Tehran would pay a “terrible price”.
On a deal, he was cool. Iran’s current conditions, which he called absurd, make an agreement unlikely, though he allowed that this could change. On Sunday he had described the same demands as “outrageous and ridiculous”.
He also made a request of allies. Rubio urged other countries to “step up” and help protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and admitted he got nowhere in Paris. “I raised it. I didn’t get a response,” he said. France and other allies say fighting must stop before they send minesweepers and other help, which Rubio called “kind of a Catch-22”. He said a couple of countries were “thinking about it”.
What Trump said on Monday
After meeting Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, at the White House, Trump said: “Iran militarily is effectively over.” He said Iran had been “decapitated” but remained “the bully of the Middle East a little bit”. The US, he said, is “just keeping it the status quo”, at the request of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait.
That status quo is the naval blockade of Iranian ports, which Trump called “the greatest naval blockade in the history of our country”, together with Task Force Iron Gate, the command set up on November 7 to cut Iran’s trade over its land borders and the Caspian Sea. Trump said he expects the conflict to end “fairly soon”, that renewed strikes are “quite unlikely” and that the US is “locked and loaded” if things change. Preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, he said, is non-negotiable.
Tehran’s reply
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary, Mohsen Rezaei, said Washington was “flailing like a desperate gambler” and should stop “making up news about imaginary negotiations”. He said the US must accept Iran’s seven conditions first. They include an end to the war on all fronts, lifting sanctions and the blockade, release of frozen assets and recognition of a new Hormuz shipping route developed with Oman.
President Masoud Pezeshkian struck a different tone, saying Iran is open to negotiation “with dignity” but will not be coerced, and that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei wants an end to the “neither war nor peace” situation. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran would meet its commitments if the US lifted sanctions and the blockade. Iranian officials have also denied a Turkish report that Rezaei and Vice President JD Vance would meet in Doha next week.
The proposal Qatar’s prime minister is understood to be carrying is a “two-day plan”: the US eases the blockade and releases frozen funds, Iran reopens Hormuz and lets in nuclear inspectors, with fuller nuclear talks to follow. Which side moves first is the main sticking point.
Allies press for restraint
Qatar’s prime minister went from the White House into talks on the sidelines of the G7 with four European foreign ministers and Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, who chaired the meeting, said the risk of renewed US-Iran escalation had not been ruled out. The British foreign minister, Ed Miliband, called for an all-out diplomatic effort, describing the “no war, no peace” stalemate as economically damaging, and urged a full reopening of Hormuz. European members pressed Rubio to avoid new escalation.
Washington itself is less united than the public line suggests. Trump has acknowledged that the war was one reason Republicans lost last week’s midterm elections, and Vance said: “The reason we lost is the war.”
From strikes to a stated pause
- February 28, 2026The war begins with the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
- November 2, 2026The US acknowledges limited strikes on Qeshm island air defences.
- November 7, 2026CENTCOM launches Task Force Iron Gate.
- November 9, 2026Trump calls the war 'effectively over' after meeting Qatar's prime minister.
- November 10, 2026Rubio tells G7 ministers no major combat is needed; Brent trades at a two-month low.
What it means for oil and for India
Oil markets took the US tone as a sign that the worst case is fading. Brent’s drop to $90.64 and a fall in US crude to $85.41 by Tuesday morning in New York came after a 17% weekly decline and leave crude well under $100. Tim Waterer of KCM Trade said the market “continues to prioritize President Trump’s more conciliatory tone toward Iran since the midterms”. Higher-than-expected US consumer prices for October also raised the odds of a Federal Reserve rate rise in December, which can slow growth and cut oil demand.
For India, which buys about half its crude through Hormuz, the lower price helps state oil companies’ margins and the rupee, although retail petrol and diesel prices are capped and move slowly. The risk is that attacks on ships continue: drone strikes on vessels in the strait have not stopped, and the US says it will keep defending shipping.
What happens next
Qatar says its mediation continues, and the two-day plan remains on the table, but Iran has set no date for talks and Rubio sees no near-term deal. Trump has said he will keep the blockade for now. The next signs to watch are whether any Gulf or European navy agrees to help in Hormuz, whether the reported Doha meeting between Vance and Rezaei is confirmed by either side, and whether oil keeps falling.